Every year at Real Estate Connect, Brad Inman brings on stage some of the best minds in the real estate industry and asks them their opinions of the current housing market. In the past two years we have attended, to no surprise it has been mostly negative or very cautious with tremendous concern in the financial services industry due to the mortgage mess which turned out to be accurate.
This year the tone was more cautiously optimisticwith all four panelists being moderately bullish about home sales for 2011 and for the housing market.
Some of the comments from each panelists are summarized below:
1. An upward surprise is a possibility. Still a lot of pain left. Tremendous long term opportunity. However, the Government has no tools to work with besides the FED. Only creativity lies within the Private Sector.
2. The New York City market has been very resilient and a great market to work in. Is short term bullish and medium term bearish. 1st uptick in consumer credit in 21 months is a major positive sign.
3. One key is the release of distress properties in the next 3 quarters. Does potentially see housing SHORTAGE moving forward. In regards to the foreclosure crisis, the robosigning risk was overstated. When the banks mass produced loans, no one complained then !
4. Since 1949 every major recession, economic recovery was led by housing and increase of jobs. Retail sales being up is a good indicator. Cannot compare housing sales to 2005 to 2006 but have to go back to 2002.
Consensus with all panelists is that interest rates should stay the course in the 5 percent range. The highest prediction was mid 5 percent All panelists predicted an increase in existing home sales year over year. There is concern that states and municipalities will have to cut jobs to meet budgets but there will be enough job growth in the private sector to make up it.
What do you think of these panelists predictions ?
Related Posts:
5 Suits Speak Five Different Perspectives - 2010 Predictions of the Housing Market
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